NEOGNOSTIKOS
17 Apr, 06 > 23 Apr, 06
10 Apr, 06 > 16 Apr, 06
3 Apr, 06 > 9 Apr, 06
27 Mar, 06 > 2 Apr, 06
20 Mar, 06 > 26 Mar, 06
13 Mar, 06 > 19 Mar, 06
6 Mar, 06 > 12 Mar, 06
27 Feb, 06 > 5 Mar, 06
20 Feb, 06 > 26 Feb, 06
13 Feb, 06 > 19 Feb, 06
6 Feb, 06 > 12 Feb, 06
30 Jan, 06 > 5 Feb, 06
23 Jan, 06 > 29 Jan, 06
16 Jan, 06 > 22 Jan, 06
9 Jan, 06 > 15 Jan, 06
2 Jan, 06 > 8 Jan, 06
26 Dec, 05 > 1 Jan, 06
19 Dec, 05 > 25 Dec, 05
12 Dec, 05 > 18 Dec, 05
5 Dec, 05 > 11 Dec, 05
28 Nov, 05 > 4 Dec, 05
21 Nov, 05 > 27 Nov, 05
14 Nov, 05 > 20 Nov, 05
7 Nov, 05 > 13 Nov, 05
31 Oct, 05 > 6 Nov, 05
24 Oct, 05 > 30 Oct, 05
17 Oct, 05 > 23 Oct, 05
10 Oct, 05 > 16 Oct, 05
3 Oct, 05 > 9 Oct, 05
26 Sep, 05 > 2 Oct, 05
19 Sep, 05 > 25 Sep, 05
12 Sep, 05 > 18 Sep, 05
5 Sep, 05 > 11 Sep, 05
29 Aug, 05 > 4 Sep, 05
22 Aug, 05 > 28 Aug, 05
15 Aug, 05 > 21 Aug, 05
8 Aug, 05 > 14 Aug, 05
1 Aug, 05 > 7 Aug, 05
25 Jul, 05 > 31 Jul, 05
18 Jul, 05 > 24 Jul, 05
11 Jul, 05 > 17 Jul, 05
4 Jul, 05 > 10 Jul, 05
27 Jun, 05 > 3 Jul, 05
20 Jun, 05 > 26 Jun, 05
13 Jun, 05 > 19 Jun, 05
6 Jun, 05 > 12 Jun, 05
30 May, 05 > 5 Jun, 05
23 May, 05 > 29 May, 05
16 May, 05 > 22 May, 05
9 May, 05 > 15 May, 05
2 May, 05 > 8 May, 05
25 Apr, 05 > 1 May, 05
18 Apr, 05 > 24 Apr, 05
11 Apr, 05 > 17 Apr, 05
4 Apr, 05 > 10 Apr, 05
28 Mar, 05 > 3 Apr, 05
21 Mar, 05 > 27 Mar, 05
14 Mar, 05 > 20 Mar, 05
7 Mar, 05 > 13 Mar, 05
28 Feb, 05 > 6 Mar, 05
21 Feb, 05 > 27 Feb, 05
14 Feb, 05 > 20 Feb, 05
7 Feb, 05 > 13 Feb, 05
31 Jan, 05 > 6 Feb, 05
24 Jan, 05 > 30 Jan, 05
17 Jan, 05 > 23 Jan, 05
10 Jan, 05 > 16 Jan, 05
3 Jan, 05 > 9 Jan, 05
27 Dec, 04 > 2 Jan, 05
20 Dec, 04 > 26 Dec, 04
13 Dec, 04 > 19 Dec, 04
6 Dec, 04 > 12 Dec, 04
29 Nov, 04 > 5 Dec, 04
22 Nov, 04 > 28 Nov, 04
15 Nov, 04 > 21 Nov, 04
8 Nov, 04 > 14 Nov, 04
1 Nov, 04 > 7 Nov, 04
25 Oct, 04 > 31 Oct, 04
18 Oct, 04 > 24 Oct, 04
11 Oct, 04 > 17 Oct, 04
4 Oct, 04 > 10 Oct, 04
27 Sep, 04 > 3 Oct, 04
20 Sep, 04 > 26 Sep, 04
13 Sep, 04 > 19 Sep, 04
6 Sep, 04 > 12 Sep, 04
30 Aug, 04 > 5 Sep, 04
23 Aug, 04 > 29 Aug, 04
16 Aug, 04 > 22 Aug, 04
9 Aug, 04 > 15 Aug, 04
2 Aug, 04 > 8 Aug, 04
26 Jul, 04 > 1 Aug, 04
19 Jul, 04 > 25 Jul, 04
12 Jul, 04 > 18 Jul, 04
5 Jul, 04 > 11 Jul, 04
28 Jun, 04 > 4 Jul, 04
21 Jun, 04 > 27 Jun, 04
14 Jun, 04 > 20 Jun, 04
7 Jun, 04 > 13 Jun, 04
31 May, 04 > 6 Jun, 04
24 May, 04 > 30 May, 04
17 May, 04 > 23 May, 04
10 May, 04 > 16 May, 04
3 May, 04 > 9 May, 04
26 Apr, 04 > 2 May, 04
19 Apr, 04 > 25 Apr, 04
12 Apr, 04 > 18 Apr, 04
5 Apr, 04 > 11 Apr, 04
29 Mar, 04 > 4 Apr, 04
22 Mar, 04 > 28 Mar, 04
15 Mar, 04 > 21 Mar, 04
8 Mar, 04 > 14 Mar, 04
1 Mar, 04 > 7 Mar, 04
23 Feb, 04 > 29 Feb, 04
16 Feb, 04 > 22 Feb, 04
9 Feb, 04 > 15 Feb, 04
2 Feb, 04 > 8 Feb, 04
26 Jan, 04 > 1 Feb, 04
19 Jan, 04 > 25 Jan, 04
12 Jan, 04 > 18 Jan, 04
5 Jan, 04 > 11 Jan, 04
29 Dec, 03 > 4 Jan, 04
22 Dec, 03 > 28 Dec, 03
15 Dec, 03 > 21 Dec, 03
8 Dec, 03 > 14 Dec, 03
1 Dec, 03 > 7 Dec, 03
24 Nov, 03 > 30 Nov, 03
17 Nov, 03 > 23 Nov, 03
27 Oct, 03 > 2 Nov, 03
20 Oct, 03 > 26 Oct, 03
13 Oct, 03 > 19 Oct, 03
6 Oct, 03 > 12 Oct, 03
29 Sep, 03 > 5 Oct, 03
22 Sep, 03 > 28 Sep, 03
15 Sep, 03 > 21 Sep, 03
8 Sep, 03 > 14 Sep, 03
1 Sep, 03 > 7 Sep, 03
25 Aug, 03 > 31 Aug, 03
18 Aug, 03 > 24 Aug, 03
11 Aug, 03 > 17 Aug, 03
4 Aug, 03 > 10 Aug, 03
28 Jul, 03 > 3 Aug, 03
21 Jul, 03 > 27 Jul, 03
14 Jul, 03 > 20 Jul, 03
7 Jul, 03 > 13 Jul, 03
30 Jun, 03 > 6 Jul, 03
23 Jun, 03 > 29 Jun, 03
16 Jun, 03 > 22 Jun, 03
9 Jun, 03 > 15 Jun, 03
2 Jun, 03 > 8 Jun, 03
26 May, 03 > 1 Jun, 03
19 May, 03 > 25 May, 03
12 May, 03 > 18 May, 03
5 May, 03 > 11 May, 03
28 Apr, 03 > 4 May, 03
21 Apr, 03 > 27 Apr, 03
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Sunday, 31 October 2004
280-258
Using a screenshot of the interactive electoral map from the Los Angeles Times, here's how I think Election Night will go.

President George W. Bush will be re-elected, 280-258. And he will win the popular vote.

If you want, leave your predictions with me in the comments section.


Posted by Toby Petzold at 2:23 PM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (7) | Permalink

Sunday, 31 October 2004 - 8:59 PM CDT

Name: Deep Blade
Home Page: http://deepblade.net/journal

Possible, but I'd put HI, IA, MN, and NM in for Kerry, making it 284-254 Kerry. Bush may take OH, and Kerry may take FL. So the whole thing could go Bush too. Depends a lot on how the Republican supression efforts work in those states. If Kerry does not have a large enough lead in one to three key states he apparently wins, but Bush is short of 270, the Republicans won't be shy about challenges. The object would be to force the electoral college to fail, thus allowing the House to elect Bush by a 30-20 margin. Scenarios where the Senate picks up enough Democrats to create a Bush-Edwards government are very unlikely. But a House election of Bush is much more so. Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans will not hesitate for a second to take that path.

Monday, 1 November 2004 - 2:22 PM CST

Name: Johnny Feelgood

No predictions. Just thought I would pass on an interesting website that has compiled polling data by state for the purpose of analyzing the probable electoral college result: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Make sure to check out the link to the animated map that shows how the electoral college results have changed over the course of the campaigns.

Monday, 1 November 2004 - 4:30 PM CST

Name: Toby Petzold

Thanks for the prediction. Actually, MN is my surprise pick-up for GWB. But who knows? I am a nervous nellie, to be sure.

As for "forcing" the Electoral College to "fail," that's nonsense. If there are challenges, that's a practice validated by your party. Besides, our Constitution provides for a tie. In 2000, there were several states with razor-thin margins, but only Floriduh gets remembered.

I just want this to be over so that I can get back to a less contentious form of entertainment.

Hang in there.

Monday, 1 November 2004 - 4:31 PM CST

Name: Toby Petzold

Thanks, Johnny.

Tuesday, 2 November 2004 - 12:41 AM CST

Name: Deep Blade
Home Page: http://deepblade.net/journal

Okay, now that the calendar has turned to Nov. 2, I'll go out on a limb and predict that John Kerry will be president-elect 24 hours from now. Kerry will receive 50.5% of the popular vote, Bush 48.5%, others 1%. Kerry will sweep all of HI, FL, PA, OH, WI, MN, IA. In none of these will Bush be closer than 50,000 votes, preventing the Bush overtime strategy. (You better believe the Republicans would go to the mat to throw the election into the House, if they could. But it won't be close enough.)

Tuesday, 2 November 2004 - 12:44 AM CST

Name: Toby Petzold

Hawaii?!?! We'll never surrender Hawaii!!! NEVER!!!

Heh, heh. Okay, Deep Blade. Hang in there.

Wednesday, 3 November 2004 - 12:44 AM CST

Name: Deep Blade
Home Page: http://deepblade.net/journal

Touche, Toby. I should never've posted that last thing, a jinx for sure. As I write this 24 hours later, Ohio is tipping Bush with a 120,000 vote margin, 10% still to count. With Ohio, it'll be all over and any court cases will go by the wayside. Zeig heil, Bush.

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