Sunday, 31 October 2004 - 8:59 PM CDT
Name: Deep BladePossible, but I'd put HI, IA, MN, and NM in for Kerry, making it 284-254 Kerry. Bush may take OH, and Kerry may take FL. So the whole thing could go Bush too. Depends a lot on how the Republican supression efforts work in those states. If Kerry does not have a large enough lead in one to three key states he apparently wins, but Bush is short of 270, the Republicans won't be shy about challenges. The object would be to force the electoral college to fail, thus allowing the House to elect Bush by a 30-20 margin. Scenarios where the Senate picks up enough Democrats to create a Bush-Edwards government are very unlikely. But a House election of Bush is much more so. Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans will not hesitate for a second to take that path.
Monday, 1 November 2004 - 2:22 PM CST
Name: Johnny Feelgood
No predictions. Just thought I would pass on an interesting website that has compiled polling data by state for the purpose of analyzing the probable electoral college result: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Make sure to check out the link to the animated map that shows how the electoral college results have changed over the course of the campaigns.
Monday, 1 November 2004 - 4:30 PM CST
Name: Toby Petzold
Thanks for the prediction. Actually, MN is my surprise pick-up for GWB. But who knows? I am a nervous nellie, to be sure.
As for "forcing" the Electoral College to "fail," that's nonsense. If there are challenges, that's a practice validated by your party. Besides, our Constitution provides for a tie. In 2000, there were several states with razor-thin margins, but only Floriduh gets remembered.
I just want this to be over so that I can get back to a less contentious form of entertainment.
Hang in there.
Tuesday, 2 November 2004 - 12:41 AM CST
Name: Deep BladeOkay, now that the calendar has turned to Nov. 2, I'll go out on a limb and predict that John Kerry will be president-elect 24 hours from now. Kerry will receive 50.5% of the popular vote, Bush 48.5%, others 1%. Kerry will sweep all of HI, FL, PA, OH, WI, MN, IA. In none of these will Bush be closer than 50,000 votes, preventing the Bush overtime strategy. (You better believe the Republicans would go to the mat to throw the election into the House, if they could. But it won't be close enough.)
Tuesday, 2 November 2004 - 12:44 AM CST
Name: Toby Petzold
Hawaii?!?! We'll never surrender Hawaii!!! NEVER!!!
Heh, heh. Okay, Deep Blade. Hang in there.
Wednesday, 3 November 2004 - 12:44 AM CST
Name: Deep BladeTouche, Toby. I should never've posted that last thing, a jinx for sure. As I write this 24 hours later, Ohio is tipping Bush with a 120,000 vote margin, 10% still to count. With Ohio, it'll be all over and any court cases will go by the wayside. Zeig heil, Bush.